Many credit portfolio managers expect default rates – currently around 2% – to be sharply higher in 2023, but the scale of the increase is still a major unknown. A useful metric to anticipate rising defaults is credit volatility – if this trends higher, credit category transition rates will increase, including transitions into default.
In the newly published special report from Structured Credit Investor (SCI), Mark Faulkner, co-founder, Credit Benchmark, investigates how Credit Consensus data can help support growth in SRT activity.
The recent award of the 2022 Nobel memorial prize in Economics to Bernanke, Diamond and Dybvig for their work on banking regulation and liquidity highlights the connection between credit and liquidity, making the point that credit assessments are a form of market information.
The Basic Materials Industry includes Chemicals, Metals, Mining, Forestry and Paper. Output prices for these sectors have been very volatile in the past 12 months, reflecting recent rapid structural changes in the global economy. However, US Basic Materials has shown a recent turning point.
As pandemic-related spending continues to fall, the US Health Care sector is beginning to show credit deterioration.
Credit Benchmark have released the August 2022 Credit Consensus Indicators (CCIs). UK Oil & Gas firms recent run of improvements ends after 6 months. EU Oil & Gas firms have experienced some instability in their collective credit quality this year, however, their CCI score has been above 50 for 3 consecutive months now. US Oil & Gas firms have gone from strength to strength, boasting CCI scores above 50 for 17 consecutive months.
Credit Benchmark have released the August 2022 Credit Consensus Indicators (CCIs). UK Industrial firms are in a positive position for the second time this month, but they have been unable to maintain a consistent trend since mid-2021. EU Industrial firms have registered another positive CCI for this month, which is the eleventh consecutive instance of a positive score. This month US Industrial firms ended their streak of 17 consecutive months of positive credit quality.
This whitepaper from Credit Benchmark illustrates the global credit trends in the second quarter of 2022. Widening credit spreads show a major shift to a “risk-off” mindset, as supply shocks and rate hikes show no sign of abating. Corporate default rates are likely to spike, and across sectors correlations between default risk are changing. This whitepaper tracks these shifts across many otherwise unrated countries/sectors, as well as illustrating other global trends in Q2 2022.
The 2022 technology stock meltdown brought widespread financial damage. Markets are repricing the new reality of geopolitical tension, inflation and scarce money. But has the selloff brought opportunities?
A growing list of countries have already seen Sovereign ratings slide in the past two years due to COVID costs; some now face a real risk of outright default as the war in Ukraine drives food, fertilizer and energy prices higher.
Credit Benchmark brings together internal credit risk views from over 40 leading global financial institutions. The contributions are anonymized, aggregated, and published in the form of consensus ratings and aggregate analytics to provide an independent, real-world perspective of credit risk. Risk and investment professionals at banks, insurance companies, asset managers and other financial firms use the data for insights into the unrated, monitoring and alerting within their portfolios, benchmarking, assessing and analyzing trends, and fulfilling regulatory requirements and capital.
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