Monthly Credit Outlook: March 2023
The March Monthly Credit Outlook looks at recent credit trends and highlights seen in the consensus dataset. This month, stubborn inflation risks steeper global credit deterioration.
March 8, 2023
The March Monthly Credit Outlook looks at recent credit trends and highlights seen in the consensus dataset. This month, stubborn inflation risks steeper global credit deterioration.
Renewable energy is at the centre of efforts to tackle climate change, but there have been setbacks to growth. 80%+ of energy demand is still met by fossil fuels, with fossil fuel companies reporting record profits as global energy prices spike. In the past two years, renewable credit risk has deteriorated and traditional energy has improved. However, there are some signs that the credit tide may be turning.
Credit Benchmark have released the February Consumer Services Credit Consensus Indicators (CCIs). This month the consensus outlook on EU Consumer Services firms is back in positive territory, whilst US Consumer Services firms return to net deterioration. UK Consumer Services firms have experienced recent instability in their collective credit balance.
Credit Benchmark have released the February Consumer Goods Credit Consensus Indicators (CCIs). UK Consumer Goods firms have experienced recent instability in their collective credit balance. US Consumer Goods firms register a fifth consecutive instance of a negative CCI this month. EU Consumer Goods firms maintain a positive CCI score.
The February Monthly Credit Outlook looks at recent credit trends and highlights seen in the consensus dataset. This month, credit risk is elevated but some positive surprises may be possible.
Credit Benchmark have released the February Industrials Credit Consensus Indicators (CCIs). Credit Benchmark have released the February Industrials Credit Consensus Indicators (CCIs). EU Industrial firms continue their run of positive credit movement, with a 17th month of improvement. UK Industrial firms continue to register a negative CCI this month. US Industrial firms return to negative credit balance.
Both US Consumer Services and Goods are currently hovering around neutral CCI scores. But the Black Friday stats so far suggest a good December, at least for consumer goods; if that momentum can be maintained we could see more positive CCIs across the Consumer sector.
Pension funds are traditionally well capitalised and usually considered investment grade. Many of the companies that sponsor those funds are weaker credits, and a significant number are non-investment grade. This means that some of the largest DB pension funds in the UK cannot rely on their sponsors for cash support to meet margin calls.
Global property is at a crossroads. The build-to-rent sector is strengthening as urban rents spike across the world, but rising mortgage rates are hitting starter and family home markets. In the corporate world, North American Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have improved since early 2021, but Industrial & Office REITs are showing signs of turning down as hybrid working persists.
The COVID outbreak led to widespread and rapid credit deterioration across multiple sectors; the subsequent recovery has been slower but has reversed much of the decline as economies have re-opened. But with war, supply shocks, inflation and rising rates, the improvement across multiple sectors has stalled and a growing number of them are turning down again.
Credit Benchmark brings together internal credit risk views from over 40 leading global financial institutions. The contributions are anonymized, aggregated, and published in the form of consensus ratings and aggregate analytics to provide an independent, real-world perspective of credit risk. Risk and investment professionals at banks, insurance companies, asset managers and other financial firms use the data for insights into the unrated, monitoring and alerting within their portfolios, benchmarking, assessing and analyzing trends, and fulfilling regulatory requirements and capital.
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