An effective COVID vaccine may be in sight, and some sectors could see major improvements in their credit quality after the major financial damage caused by the virus. But which sectors have held up well, and which have been heading towards serious trouble?
Global airlines face a battle for their survival, and equity indexes reflect recent volatility. However, any temporary rallying in airline stocks is at odds with the relentless decline seen in credit risk consensus data.
After six months of market volatility, credit spreads have coincided with the much slower ascent of Consensus credit risk, suggesting the latter is a calmer indication of future credit market movement.
Consensus credit data suggests that in times of crisis, the “Solvency Boundary” between investment-grade and non-investment grade credits is more fluid than during non-crisis times. The implication for bond and equity investors is that in the current environment, not all BBB issues are the same.
When equity markets turn down they will pivot towards companies with the highest credit quality. This analysis shows the relationship between equity market movements and credit risk for US corporates.
This report uses bank-sourced credit risk assessments to show how 2019 unfolded in some key geographies and industries – assessments which, crucially, are based on actual expected default frequencies. By reviewing the year that was in credit risk, we can grasp some clues as to how the 2020 narrative may play out.
The guillotine and the rack are very different instruments. One does the job quickly: the blade comes down and the head comes off. The rack
Rising global rates, coupled with trade tensions, have contributed to the recent bout of volatility in emerging markets. Venezuela now has hyperinflation, Argentina is struggling
US equities have now had 3,453 days without a correction of 20% or more – the longest bull run in US financial history. And since
The latest GDP numbers from the US show a blistering real growth rate of more than 4%, implying that the Trump tax cuts are having
Credit Benchmark brings together internal credit risk views from over 40 leading global financial institutions. The contributions are anonymized, aggregated, and published in the form of consensus ratings and aggregate analytics to provide an independent, real-world perspective of credit risk. Risk and investment professionals at banks, insurance companies, asset managers and other financial firms use the data for insights into the unrated, monitoring and alerting within their portfolios, benchmarking, assessing and analyzing trends, and fulfilling regulatory requirements and capital.
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