Whitepapers
2025 Default Risk Outlook: US Industries (Q3 Update)
Credit Benchmark’s 2025 US Default Risk Outlook covers 12 US Industries. The report predicts US default risks to remain stable over the next 12 months as rate cuts cushion the impact of a slowing economy, but some industries face challenges.
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Default Rate Forecast 2023/24: US Speculative Grade Borrowers and US Leveraged Loans
Default rates for US Speculative Grade bonds and Leveraged Loans are rising and expected to peak in Q2 2024. This whitepaper examines projected credit default rates for US issuers based on credit consensus data from global banks.
Credit Portfolio Risk: Consensus Data Fills in the Blanks
Investors in credit portfolios make extensive use of credit agency ratings and market-driven risk models. But some segments are faced with less visibility and a lack of public ratings, while credit portfolio management models are only as good as the credit risk data available to them. This paper reviews a data-driven framework for portfolio risk analysis and discusses practical applications of consensus credit risk estimates.
Credit Correlations: Avoiding Unnecessary Risks
With default risks expected to rise in 2023, correlations between those risks are increasingly important for credit portfolio management. Exposures to different sectors – that normally diversify the portfolio – may show a simultaneous increase in risk during difficult economic conditions. This paper shows how Consensus credit data can be used to estimate credit correlations between regions, countries, industries, and sectors.
Credit Consensus Ratings and Risk Sharing Portfolios
Risk sharing transactions are a rapidly growing asset class, and have provided attractive returns over the past decade. As corporate credit becomes more unstable, emerging risks – and opportunities – highlight the need for comprehensive credit data for accurate transaction pricing. This paper details how Credit Consensus Ratings and Aggregates provide a detailed map of the credit market risk-reward landscape, including possible anomalies.
Something Better Change: Securities Lending Indemnification is Unsustainable in Its Current Form
In this paper Mark Faulkner reflects on the securities finance industry from a personal perspective and explores some of the challenges associated with Securities Lending Indemnification. The paper aims to explain the confluence of events behind these problems, assess their impact upon the market structure and make some suggestions to help mitigate the issues moving forward.
Another COVID Year: Credit Trends in 2021
2021 was another year dominated by COVID, but will hopefully mark the beginning of the end for the pandemic. This report shows the key credit trends that emerged in 2021 and examines which geographies, industries and sectors proved resilient to the widespread deterioration brought about by COVID in 2020 – and which have a more difficult road ahead.
