Insights

Air travel is currently running at about 50% of its pre-pandemic peak and the sector still faces uncertainty from new virus variants, patchy tourism traffic and a shift in business travel norms. While many Global Airlines are unrated by traditional agencies, consensus credit risk data shows that 80% of the sector is below investment grade – but some remain good credit risks.

Wildfires are growing in intensity and frequency, and in the US are sometimes attributed to outdated electricity infrastructure, presenting a legal hurdle for companies in the sector. Addressing these issues requires investment, and companies with stronger credit ratings are better placed to fund the necessary capital spending. This note looks at the credit profile and recent trends for 371 US electricity companies.

Australia has so far weathered the Covid storm in reasonable shape, and is one of the few Sovereigns rated AAA by the three largest traditional rating agencies. A credit consensus rating of aa+ reflects a slightly more cautious Bank view. This research analyses a number of Australian industries, sectors and companies to demonstrate the Covid effect on national credit quality comparative to global trends.

As vaccine rollout varies globally, it is clear that the economic bounceback from Covid will be led by the largest and most developed economies. Overall vaccination figures show that the global pandemic is far from over; but trends in the credit consensus are already giving some clues to the shape of the expected global economic recovery.

As widespread lockdowns forced millions indoors in 2020, consumer spending habits shifted from live entertainment and travel to home-based recreation. But how did the credit fortunes of each sector of leisure providers compare before COVID – and is a shift in leisure habits likely to persist?