EC Capital Proposals: Low Profile, High Impact
Contentious pending Basel rules have led critics to warn that higher risk weights for unrated corporates and funds will lead to a dramatic increase in bank capital requirements and an overall reduction in lending activity. This analysis examines the breadth of impact on the thousands of high quality entities that are not publicly rated.
Are Trucking Companies Winning From Supply Chain Strain?
Freight and logistics companies have found the silver lining to ongoing supply chain issues, with some reporting record quarterly revenue and operating income. This report analyses credit trends for North American and European trucking companies, highlighting some company-specific examples including TForce, Penske, Wincanton and Woodland.
COP26: Is Credit Risk Part of the Problem?
COP26 has made headlines, but the real debate is about the need for speed in translating pledges into action. Consensus credit data shows that nations with the most to lose from climate impact also have the least available resources to enact change – leaving the responsibility largely in the hands of developed economies with strong sovereign credit ratings.
Will the UK & US Leisure Goods Sector Be Home for Christmas?
Much of the Leisure Goods sector was hit hard by Covid and growing supply chain problems are a threat to the winter holiday season, and to toy sales in particular. This analysis examines credit risk trends for US and UK Leisure Goods companies from the lows of Covid to today.
Supply Chain Crisis: Food Producers Credit Trends
Global food prices are at a 10-year high, pushed up by the pandemic. With climate change a growing issue, prices are likely to stay raised. Consensus credit data shows food producers have weathered COVID well, with many rated higher than the major credit rating agencies and continuing to improve.
Rising Interest Rates and Credit Upgrades
With a potential UK interest rate hike on the cards, a growing number of central banks are seeing inflation as a key near-term risk to economic stability. With net credit upgrades currently in balance, and a growing number of countries imposing monetary tightening, there is a risk that the global net credit balance turns sharply negative.
Restaurants & Bars: US Recovery Pulls Ahead of UK
The hospitality industry has suffered from prolonged closures, reduced capacity, supply issues and staff shortages during COVID, damaging an already low margin business. For the UK, Brexit has magnified these effects. Analysis of consensus credit data shows a disparity in recovery between the US and UK.
Sovereign Credit Risk and the Cost of COVID
A potential US Government shutdown is focusing attention on Sovereign credit risk, with a risk to US Treasury bond payments. A missed payment would be a major market event, but the broader issue is how Governments around the world handle the cost of COVID. The latest consensus data examines credit risk trends for Global Sovereign Governments, plus compares consensus vs CRA ratings for 12 major economies.
Survival of the Fittest in the Leveraged Loan Market
There are fears that investors in the broader high yield space are not being properly compensated for the risks. Though recent private equity investments have focused on firms that have weathered the pandemic with stable revenues and strong cash flows, which could boost the average credit quality of leveraged loan assets, the latest consensus credit data shows a more mixed picture.
Marine Transportation: Turning the Credit Tide?
Shipping container unit costs have skyrocketed and delivery times doubled in the past 18 months, with the pandemic causing port closures, trade flow disruptions and capacity reductions. Consensus credit data tracks the credit trend of Global Marine Transportation companies and suggests that the sector may be a leading indicator for broader corporate credit risk.
