Global Airlines Sector: Credit Trends
Whitepaper // No.8February 2017Airline Industry Trends Download the PDF “Global Airlines Sector: Credit Trends“ The global airlines sector made record profits last year. Long term global population growth and short to medium term oil trends continue to be favourable. Monthly data shows that credit views of individual airlines have changed rapidly over the past year, […]
Dow Above 20,000 But Banks Increasingly Cautious On Credit Risk
On January 25th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the “Dow”) closed above 20,000 for the first time in its history. This milestone has made headlines around the world, and is seen as a vote of confidence in the economic agenda of the new administration. However, bank data shows that the credit risk of the Dow […]
EU Sovereign Credit Risk Index: Some Divergences, But Improving Trend
The EU Sovereign Credit Risk Index covers all 28 EU member states, including the UK. Greece has made major steps towards reform (see Greece news article) but remains the highest risk EU Sovereign, by a considerable margin. Compared with mid-2016, the latest data shows modest improvements in 11 countries – Ireland, Spain, Portugal , Lithuania, Austria, Slovakia, […]
Argentina Attracting Foreign Investment And Credit Showing Steady Improvement
Argentina emerged from default last year and its economic indicators are beginning to improve. The economy is still in recession but appears to be finding a base, and inflation, while high (estimated at 17%) is falling. The agriculture sector is now only 10% of GDP, but is growing; and Construction and Real Estate are booming […]
Trump Stance On IMF And EU May Undermine Positive Credit Outlook For Greece
In 2016, the Greek debt crisis was largely overshadowed in the media by other international dramas, including the U.K. Brexit vote and the U.S. election. Nevertheless, during this period banks were increasingly optimistic regarding the country’s credit progress – following the release of EU funds in December 2015, the banks upgraded their views of Greek’s […]
Cyprus Peace Talks Face Growing Obstacles But Success Would Improve Credit Standing
Cyprus is steadily recovering from its recent financial difficulties. Despite being downgraded to junk during the 2012/13 financial crisis, it has managed to exit the EU-led rescue package, and re-started bond issuance in 2014. Earlier this month, the Bank of Cyprus (the largest commercial bank) announced that it had fully repaid its EUR 11.4bn emergency […]
US Corporate Credit Deteriorated Last Year
The U.S. Federal Reserve started the long process of normalizing interest rates in late 2015. But with the US economy growing by a lacklustre 1.6% in 2016, and inflation at a benign 1.3%, Yellen chose to wait a full year before the recent hike in December 2016. With President-elect Trump keen to change the composition […]
Despite A Year Of Negative Headlines, Banks Are Measured On Russia
Over the course of 2016, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has rarely been out of the headlines, and it’s seldom been positive. In late December, the Russian ambassador to Turkey was killed in an attack allegedly related to Russian involvement in Syria; and this is not the first time that Putin’s continued backing of Bashar al-Assad has […]
Sovereigns Show Higher Risk Premiums Than Corporates, But The Gap Is Closing
2017 is likely to be a year of fiscal expansion across a number of developed economies. Low interest rates are losing effectiveness in a growing number of economies and the Fed may resume its rate rises this week. But the ECB package announced last week shows that some Central Banks still see a role for […]
Banks Take Italian Referendum Risk In Their Stride
Italian Sovereign bond yields have been trending higher ahead of the referendum on Sunday which may decide the fate of Renzi, the reforming Prime Minister. They are currently showing that ‘No’ is ahead by 5-7 points, but this is a year when political polls have been proven wrong more than once. Although Renzi’s reforms are […]
