North American REITs: Industrial & Office Deteriorating
Global property is at a crossroads. The build-to-rent sector is strengthening as urban rents spike across the world, but rising mortgage rates are hitting starter and family home markets. In the corporate world, North American Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have improved since early 2021, but Industrial & Office REITs are showing signs of turning down as hybrid working persists.
November Credit Consensus Indicators (CCIs) – UK, EU and US Oil & Gas
Credit Benchmark have released the November 2022 Credit Consensus Indicators (CCIs). US Oil & Gas firms have put a recent negative blip behind them with another month of positive credit quality, while UK and EU firms also continue to enjoy net credit improvement.
COVID Recovery: Running Out of Steam
The COVID outbreak led to widespread and rapid credit deterioration across multiple sectors; the subsequent recovery has been slower but has reversed much of the decline as economies have re-opened. But with war, supply shocks, inflation and rising rates, the improvement across multiple sectors has stalled and a growing number of them are turning down again.
October 2022 Industry Monitor
Credit Benchmark have released the latest end-month industry update, based on the final and complete set of the contributed credit risk estimates from 40+ global financial institutions.
October 2022 Financial Counterpart Monitor
The Financial Counterpart Monitor from Credit Benchmark provides a unique analysis of the changing creditworthiness of financial institutions.
Credit Volatility: Defaults Set to Rise, Africa and UK at Risk
Many credit portfolio managers expect default rates – currently around 2% – to be sharply higher in 2023, but the scale of the increase is still a major unknown. A useful metric to anticipate rising defaults is credit volatility – if this trends higher, credit category transition rates will increase, including transitions into default.
Q3 2022 Credit Review: Inflation and Credit Risk: Close to Boiling Point
Inflation dominated Q3 financial news, and the resulting short rate squeeze is biting while credit volatility is rising and the COVID recovery is running out of steam. Risk indicators are high in the UK, and oil and gas price volatility has brought havoc to Europe. In North America, weaker credit trends are appearing in several sectors. Believe it or not, there are some bright spots amidst this turmoil. This whitepaper elaborates on some of these trends and shows where credit could be headed next.
Business Development Companies (BDCs)
The Business Development Company sector in the US has grown steadily over the past 20 years. While BDCs allow retail investors to gain liquid exposure to portfolios of private companies, their historically high returns have been dented recently by some steep falls in valuations and – in some cases – discounts to net asset values.
Structured Credit Investor Special Report: Data and Portfolio Optimisation
In the newly published special report from Structured Credit Investor (SCI), Mark Faulkner, co-founder, Credit Benchmark, investigates how Credit Consensus data can help support growth in SRT activity.
Economics Nobel Prize Highlights Credit Risk as “Crucial Information”
The recent award of the 2022 Nobel memorial prize in Economics to Bernanke, Diamond and Dybvig for their work on banking regulation and liquidity highlights the connection between credit and liquidity, making the point that credit assessments are a form of market information.
