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Credit risk was volatile for Global Oil & Gas producers in 2024 and global supply is expected to exceed demand in 2025, subject to strong geopolitical influences. This analysis from Credit Benchmark reviews global credit trends across a range of Oil & Gas sectors with a view to the year ahead.
Default risk for High Yield Corporates and Financials forecast to rise across all G7 + China economies in 2025 with exception of the US, according to Credit Benchmark’s Default Risk Outlook.
The economic impact of Trump’s 2024 election victory will be far reaching. This report from Credit Benchmark draws on internal credit ratings collected from global banks to show default risk trends for sectors most likely to be affected.
High-yield rated US and UK media companies are deteriorating rapidly, creating a growing chasm between these and investment grade firms.
Credit Benchmark’s 2025 US Default Risk Outlook covers 12 US Industries. The report predicts US default risks to remain stable over the next 12 months as rate cuts cushion the impact of a slowing economy, but some industries face challenges.
German Corporates are facing accelerated credit deterioration amid economic struggles, with Consumer Goods, Healthcare, and Basic Materials hit the hardest.
Credit Benchmark’s new 2024/25 Default Risk Outlook for UK Industries predicts UK default risks to plateau in next 12 months; Basic Materials, Telecoms and Technology predicted to show >10% increase in default risk by Q2 2025.
A credit rating transition matrix shows, for a group of companies, the proportion that migrate from one credit rating category to another over a set time period. For example it could show the proportion of firms with rating AA that migrate to AAA, A, BBB, BB, B and C, plus those that remain in the AA rating category, in the course of a single year. For some use cases, it also includes a Default column to show the proportion of firms that default.
Growing commodity exports may see African sovereign default risk improve by 10%+ in next year, according to Credit Benchmark’s credit risk forecast.
Credit Benchmark’s new 2024/25 Default Risk Outlook for EU Industries predicts default risk will peak late-2024 for most EU industries, but Tech, Telecoms, Oil & Gas and Utilities could rise significantly
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Credit Benchmark brings together internal credit risk views from over 40 leading global financial institutions. The contributions are anonymized, aggregated, and published in the form of consensus ratings and aggregate analytics to provide an independent, real-world perspective of credit risk. Risk and investment professionals at banks, insurance companies, asset managers and other financial firms use the data for insights into the unrated, monitoring and alerting within their portfolios, benchmarking, assessing and analyzing trends, and fulfilling regulatory requirements and capital.
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