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COVID has led to an unprecedented number of credit downgrades (Fallen Angels). While some firms have emerged COVID winners, credit upgrades (Rising Stars) have so far been in a minority. But with vaccines now being rolled out, an end to the economic crisis could be in sight even for some of the hardest-hit sectors.
Co-working fills an obvious gap in the office property market, and the sector has seen exponential growth since its inception in 2005. But with a global pandemic and a possibly permanent downshift in demand for city center office space, can the co-working model survive? New consensus data shows that co-working credit quality has been one of the hardest hit segments in the office property space.
An effective COVID vaccine may be in sight, and some sectors could see major improvements in their credit quality after the major financial damage caused by the virus. But which sectors have held up well, and which have been heading towards serious trouble?
Global airlines face a battle for their survival, and equity indexes reflect recent volatility. However, any temporary rallying in airline stocks is at odds with the relentless decline seen in credit risk consensus data.
How far do equity market movements reflect credit developments during the COVID crisis?
After six months of market volatility, credit spreads have coincided with the much slower ascent of Consensus credit risk, suggesting the latter is a calmer indication of future credit market movement.
Consensus credit data suggests that in times of crisis, the “Solvency Boundary” between investment-grade and non-investment grade credits is more fluid than during non-crisis times. The implication for bond and equity investors is that in the current environment, not all BBB issues are the same.
The Covid19 crisis has exposed the risks in single, long and complex supply chains that are only as strong as their weakest link. Companies are moving
Rating agency downgrades have hit unprecedented levels over the past few months, but the majority of the downgrades have been for companies that were already classed as high yield. Fallen Angels – companies that cross the boundary from Investment Grade to Junk – are still in a minority, as agencies (and their corporate clients) display an understandable reluctance to avoid the “BBB cliff”.
Download the full Luxury Goods Aggregate Analytics infographic below. The Luxury Goods sector has had phenomenal success over the past ten years. Growing global middle
Credit Benchmark brings together internal credit risk views from over 40 leading global financial institutions. The contributions are anonymized, aggregated, and published in the form of consensus ratings and aggregate analytics to provide an independent, real-world perspective of credit risk. Risk and investment professionals at banks, insurance companies, asset managers and other financial firms use the data for insights into the unrated, monitoring and alerting within their portfolios, benchmarking, assessing and analyzing trends, and fulfilling regulatory requirements and capital.
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