The Oil & Gas sector was in trouble even before the first Covid lockdown, and it was one of the worst credit performers in 2020. Recent credit agency downgrades for some of the US majors have brought these ratings into alignment with the more conservative bank consensus view.
The 2020 pandemic brought various forms of disruption and hardship, and Governments and businesses around the world had to rely on trial and error to find the best response. There have been some high-profile corporate winners – and many losers. This report shows the key credit and solvency trends that emerged in 2020 and provides some pointers towards what we can expect in 2021.
As supply chains dissolve and reform in response to COVID, combining supply chain network views on Bloomberg with consensus credit risk data can give a more complete picture of the resilience or vulnerability of different sectors and companies.
CDS prices are often cited as a proxy for solvency risk. New research shows some large variations between CDS prices and consensus credit risk data for GSIBs.
COVID has led to an unprecedented number of credit downgrades (Fallen Angels). While some firms have emerged COVID winners, credit upgrades (Rising Stars) have so far been in a minority. But with vaccines now being rolled out, an end to the economic crisis could be in sight even for some of the hardest-hit sectors.
Co-working fills an obvious gap in the office property market, and the sector has seen exponential growth since its inception in 2005. But with a global pandemic and a possibly permanent downshift in demand for city center office space, can the co-working model survive? New consensus data shows that co-working credit quality has been one of the hardest hit segments in the office property space.
An effective COVID vaccine may be in sight, and some sectors could see major improvements in their credit quality after the major financial damage caused by the virus. But which sectors have held up well, and which have been heading towards serious trouble?
Global airlines face a battle for their survival, and equity indexes reflect recent volatility. However, any temporary rallying in airline stocks is at odds with the relentless decline seen in credit risk consensus data.
How far do equity market movements reflect credit developments during the COVID crisis?
After six months of market volatility, credit spreads have coincided with the much slower ascent of Consensus credit risk, suggesting the latter is a calmer indication of future credit market movement.
Credit Benchmark brings together internal credit risk views from over 40 leading global financial institutions. The contributions are anonymized, aggregated, and published in the form of consensus ratings and aggregate analytics to provide an independent, real-world perspective of credit risk. Risk and investment professionals at banks, insurance companies, asset managers and other financial firms use the data for insights into the unrated, monitoring and alerting within their portfolios, benchmarking, assessing and analyzing trends, and fulfilling regulatory requirements and capital.
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