David Carruthers

Shifting energy sector dynamics have been a bonanza for US oil and gas companies, with prices spiking and share prices following suit. Strong share performance does not always correlate with strong credit quality, however. This analysis shows the relationship between Credit Consensus Ratings and US energy sector equity price changes in 2022.

With tighter global monetary policy already hitting heavily indebted households and firms, could default rates also reach record levels? This insight looks at the relationship between the Fed Effective rate and US Business Loan Delinquencies.

The Fed is taking an aggressive approach to rising inflation with predictions of imminent rate hikes, and some UK sectors will feel the flow-on impact harder than others. This report shows the historical impact of Fed rates, among other factors, on the credit quality of UK Corporate sectors.

The war in Ukraine has already had a dramatic impact on the global food trade with Russian aggression damaging global food supplies, and the fertiliser industry is also due to feel the pinch. EU Food Product firms are taking the hit, with a 4% drop in credit quality in the last month. Consensus data will continue to track the effect of the war on sectors and companies, rated and unrated, across the globe.

Russia is one of the world’s largest gold producers, and sanctions and inflation fears have seen the price of gold and other precious metals spike in the past month. Outside of Russia, many suppliers may have their eureka moment as prices continue to rise. This report compares credit consensus ratings to equity prices for some of the largest global mining companies.

Market risk indicators are increasingly important amid global tensions and interest rate volatility. Consensus credit data offers a view beyond the VIX index and credit spreads – and recent data suggests financial institutions see the current problems translating into higher default rates.

As credit markets become more challenging and volatile amid Fed tightening and expanding credit spreads, consensus data provides a stable reference point for assessing underlying portfolio credit risk. This report analyses a universe of bonds tracked by the iBoxx High Yield Index.

The energy sector had a difficult pandemic and Government attempts to pursue net zero carbon policies added further challenges. But with the UK oil giants announcing record profits, it is clear that their setbacks were short-lived. This report examines regional credit trends and recovery patterns for US, UK, EU and Asian Oil & Gas companies

January 2022 has been a difficult month for investors and looming Fed rate hikes mean more “Risk Off” days ahead. The hunt for yield continues, and with equity dividends at a high, consensus credit data can identify which industries are also underpinned by safe credit.