Credit risk was volatile for Global Oil & Gas producers in 2024 and global supply is expected to exceed demand in 2025, subject to strong geopolitical influences. This analysis from Credit Benchmark reviews global credit trends across a range of Oil & Gas sectors with a view to the year ahead.
Default risk for High Yield Corporates and Financials forecast to rise across all G7 + China economies in 2025 with exception of the US, according to Credit Benchmark’s Default Risk Outlook.
High-yield rated US and UK media companies are deteriorating rapidly, creating a growing chasm between these and investment grade firms.
German Corporates are facing accelerated credit deterioration amid economic struggles, with Consumer Goods, Healthcare, and Basic Materials hit the hardest.
Growing commodity exports may see African sovereign default risk improve by 10%+ in next year, according to Credit Benchmark’s credit risk forecast.
Credit Benchmark’s new 2024/25 Default Risk Outlook for EU Industries predicts default risk will peak late-2024 for most EU industries, but Tech, Telecoms, Oil & Gas and Utilities could rise significantly
UK water firms are under scrutiny after the recent default of Thames Water owner Kemble; Credit Benchmark’s consensus risk data has been flagging problems in the water sector for some time. Default risk forecasts estimate that sector risk is set to rise by at least 10% in the next year, with potential to rise by as much as 20%.
Credit Benchmark’s consensus dataset reflects historical economic upheaval through clear global credit cycles. Sector-level “leaders and laggards” within a cycle can be used in portfolio management to model transition matrix changes and provide valuable insights into the future credit profiles of sector exposures.
A new SRT case study explores how projected default rates, derived from credit consensus data, can be used to manage portfolio risk and optimise trade structures.
Global transportation firms face higher risk of default if geopolitical tensions persist. Future credit trends for global transportation firms can appear months in advance in Credit Benchmark’s credit consensus dataset.
Credit Benchmark brings together internal credit risk views from over 40 leading global financial institutions. The contributions are anonymized, aggregated, and published in the form of consensus ratings and aggregate analytics to provide an independent, real-world perspective of credit risk. Risk and investment professionals at banks, insurance companies, asset managers and other financial firms use the data for insights into the unrated, monitoring and alerting within their portfolios, benchmarking, assessing and analyzing trends, and fulfilling regulatory requirements and capital.
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